Рассчитать значения среднегодовых темпов роста и темпов прироста показателей.
. Средний абсолютный прирост.
![](images/books/602/image173.png) =![](images/books/602/image174.png) , (2.12)
где n - число уровней ряда.
![](images/books/602/image173.png) = (2,38 - 3,14) / (20 - 1) = - 0,04
![](images/books/602/image175.png) = (74 - 78,5) / (20 - 1) = - 0,237
![](images/books/602/image176.png) = (170,1 - 51,5) / (20 - 1) ≈ 6,24
2. Средний темп роста.
![](images/books/602/image177.png) = ![](images/books/602/image178.png) * 100, % (2.13)
![](images/books/602/image179.png) = ![](images/books/602/image180.png) * 100 ≈ 98,55 %
![](images/books/602/image181.png) = ![](images/books/602/image182.png) * 100 ≈ 99,69 %
![](images/books/602/image183.png) = ![](images/books/602/image184.png) * 100 ≈ 106,5 %
3. Средний темп прироста.
![](images/books/602/image185.png) = ![](images/books/602/image177.png) - 100% (2.14)
![](images/books/602/image186.png) = ![](images/books/602/image187.png) - 100% = - 1,45 %,![](images/books/602/image188.png) = 99,69 - 100% = - 0,31 %
![](images/books/602/image189.png) = 106,5 - 100% = 6,5 %
4. Среднее значение 1% прироста.
![](images/books/602/image190.png) = ![](images/books/602/image191.png) (2.15)
![](images/books/602/image192.png) = ![](images/books/602/image193.png) ≈ 0,029
![](images/books/602/image194.png) = ![](images/books/602/image195.png) ≈ 0,76
![](images/books/602/image196.png) = ![](images/books/602/image197.png) ≈ 9,96
Определить экстраполируемый уровень (уn+1).
1. По среднему абсолютному приросту.
![](images/books/602/image198.png) = ![](images/books/602/image199.png) + ![](images/books/602/image173.png) * l, (2.16)
где l - срок прогноза (упреждения).
2. По среднему темпу роста.
![](images/books/602/image198.png) = ![](images/books/602/image199.png) * ![](images/books/602/image200.png) (2.17)
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